Just the Flu? The Labor Market Spillovers of Influenza Vaccination

This study estimates the spillover effects of influenza vaccination on labor markets. To identify the causal impact of flu vaccines, I employ a difference-in-differences design based on plausibly exogenous variation in vaccine quality and local vaccination rates in the United States. I show that influenza vaccination not only reduces illness but also generates substantial gains in employment and wages. My analysis suggests that the main mechanisms are an increase in labor productivity in high-contact sectors and demand spillovers across sectors. By developing a general-equilibrium model and testing its predictions in the data, I show that these spillovers are driven by the input–output structure of production and changes in consumers’ earnings. To probe the external validity of these results, I study a change in vaccination policy in Canada. Together, these findings provide the first causal evidence that influenza vaccination yields sizable economic benefits, highlighting the importance of both direct and indirect channels.